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CLIMATE CHANGE

To find out about the effects of climate change see  the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution background paper Environmental Impacts of Energy by Dr Nick Eyre at:
http://www.rcep.org.uk/studies/energy/98-6064/eyre.html

CLIMATE CHANGE BASICS          SJ Kinsella January 1999

Scientists predict that temperature may rise by a further 1 to 3 degrees C in the next century, depending on the amount of future emissions and other factors.

A relatively small rise in temperature can create big changes in climate.  The number of days with exceptionally hot weather could increase so that 1in 130-year events (like the summers of 1995 and 1976) could become 1-in 3-year possibilities.  The fear is that climate change will lead to a continuation of climate disasters.  In the Antarctic, there has been an increase of 12 degrees over the past 20 years, and last January a further 2000 square miles of icecap started to break loose.  Last year we saw hurricanes and floods in North and South America and Asia, and an exceptionally wet summer here.  It is too early to know whether these were caused by climate change, but they indicate the possibility.  There will be other massive effects.  Sea level is projected to rise by 315mm to up to one metre – even the minimum rise will have devastating results.

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

SMALL GLOBAL TEMPERATURE CHANGES CAUSE MASSIVE EFFECTS

LARGE INCREASE IN NUMBER OF EXTREMELY HOT DAYS

MELTING OF POLAR ICECAPS – CHANGES IN SEA LEVEL

               –   CHANGES IN OCEAN CURRENTS

DROUGHT IN SOME AREAS, FLOODS IN OTHERS
              
CLIMATE INSTABILITY 

HURRICANES

RAINFALL – SOME PARTS OF THE WORLD WILL GET MORE, SOME LESS

THE GREATEST DAMAGE AND HUMAN COST IS LIKELY TO FALL IN THE AREAS WHICH
ARE MOST VULNERABLE AND HAVE LEAST RESOURCES – SOUTH East Asia AND AFRICA

AGRICULTURAL DISRUPTION

AIR POLLUTION

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Carbon dioxide accumulates in the atmosphere – our activities add to it all the time.  It has been estimated that a global reduction of at least 60 to 80% below the 1990 level will be ultimately required to limit the temperature rise to 0.1 degrees C per decade in order to stabilise atmospheric carbon dioxide at double its historic level

With no action at all, carbon dioxide will double its pre-industrial level in year 2030.  This would be the fastest rate of increase for 150,000 years, and could have massive climatic effects.  The intention behind present initiatives is to postpone the doubling of carbon dioxide to the year 2100.
The immediate objective looks ahead just ten years to 2010, and aims to achieve carbon dioxide levels then which are no higher than the 1990 levels.  Broadly, this is the objective behind the Kyoto agreement and other present initiatives.

Most of our energy comes from fossil fuels being burnt and the burning process creates carbon dioxide.  90% of our electrical energy creates carbon dioxide (the remainder does not because it comes mainly from nuclear fuel – which has different environmental problems).

Everyone in the industrialised world is capable of taking a part in mitigating the effect of global warming on future generations.